I thought it would be a good idea to talk about the teams that are currently on a hot streak in the NHL, but, before doing so, I thought I'd find some stats to see if there is a correlation between: the record in the final few weeks of the regular season and playoff performance.
I decided to look at statistics from the past three years and look at how teams have done after March 1st and in the playoffs. Last season, despite being the fourth seed, the Pittsburgh Penguins led the league with 1.63 Pts per GP after March 1st and went on to win the Stanley Cup. Here is a chart that shows why the Pts per GP after March 1st is an interesting stat to keep your eye on:
|
W |
L |
Win % |
Higher Seed |
28 |
17 |
62.2% |
Higher PTS /GP |
30 |
14 |
68.2% |
Higher PTS /GP by 0.25 |
14 |
2 |
87.5% |
As you can see, Pts per GP after March 1st is a better indicator than the playoff seed. The even more impressive number is that if a team has 0.25 Pts per GP more than the team they are facing, they win 87.5% of the time. You might argue that many of those are obvious wins, but, over the past three years, only 6 of those 14 wins were when a 1 or 2 seed was facing a 7 or 8 seed.
With that said, let's take a look at the current Pts per GP Standings since March 1st:
|
GP |
PTS/GP |
MTL |
8 |
1.75 |
PHX |
7 |
1.71 |
WSH |
8 |
1.63 |
PIT |
7 |
1.57 |
DET |
8 |
1.50 |
VAN |
9 |
1.44 |
NSH |
9 |
1.33 |
COL |
8 |
1.25 |
MIN |
8 |
1.25 |
TOR |
9 |
1.22 |
CGY |
7 |
1.14 |
FLA |
7 |
1.14 |
NJD |
7 |
1.14 |
STL |
7 |
1.14 |
CAR |
8 |
1.13 |
NYI |
8 |
1.13 |
PHI |
9 |
1.11 |
BOS |
9 |
1.00 |
CBJ |
7 |
1.00 |
CHI |
7 |
1.00 |
LAK |
7 |
1.00 |
NYR |
8 |
1.00 |
SJS |
7 |
1.00 |
BUF |
8 |
0.88 |
ATL |
9 |
0.78 |
DAL |
8 |
0.63 |
TBL |
8 |
0.63 |
EDM |
9 |
0.56 |
ANA |
6 |
0.50 |
OTT |
7 |
0.43 |
There is still a lot of hockey to be played but there are a couple of teams on there to keep your eye on:
1. Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens had an up and down year but they have been on fire in the past few weeks and now seem to be on their way to the playoffs. Their 7-1-0 record since the Olympic break is even more impressive considering they are playing without their leading goal scorer Mike Cammalleri. After last night's win, the Habs now have a 7 points lead on the Rangers and the ninth spot in the East and are only 1 point back of the fifth seed which seemed unreachable a week ago.
2. Phoenix Coyotes: Despite all the talk of moving the team, the Phoenix Coyotes are having their best season in franchise history. The Coyotes have won 6 straight games since acquiring Wojtek Wolski and Derek Morris at the trade deadline and have put themselves in very good position to have home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The season-ending injury to Scottie Upshall has not hurt them yet but he would have been a useful player in the playoffs.
3. Washington Capitals: The Capitals have been solid all-season long and should continue to be dominant as long as they remain healthy. You can criticize their goaltending all you want but they score so many goals that they don't need their goalie to steal a game in the playoffs in order to win a series. They will be a very tough team to beat.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins: The defending Stanley Cup Champions are another team that has been hot of late and could go on a run like they did last year. They have an impressive 5-1-1 record since the Olympic break and in my opinion will be the team to beat in the playoffs, if they stay healthy. Say all you want about the Capitals but the Penguins are the defending champions and are 34-14-5 with Sergei Gonchar in the lineup. Remember that last year he missed more than four months and the Penguins were basically unbeatable once he came back in the middle of February.
5. Detroit Red Wings: The 2009 Stanley Cup Finalists have had a very difficult season but have won 6 of their last 8 games and have somewhat solidified the 8th spot in the West. With 13 games left in the season, I expect the Wings to move up a couple of spot and will create a very tough match-up for the Sharks, Blackhawks or Canucks in the first round of the playoffs.
6. Vancouver Canucks: Despite playing 14 straight games on the road because of the Olympics, the Vancouver Canucks have managed to hold on to their lead in the Northwest division. The Canucks were in a similar position last year but disappointed many by losing in the second round of the playoffs. With Roberto Luongo in net, this team could be a wild card pick to make it all the way.
I'll post these standings again in a week or two to see how things have changed and to see if these six teams manage to continue their streak.